NEW YORK: The World Bank lowered its global growth forecast to 2.5 percent for 2026 on Thursday, from 2.9 percent in 2025, marking the lowest rate since late 2019, Xinhua News Agency reported.
The bank’s semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report cited rising energy prices, higher inflation and rising borrowing costs amid the West Asian conflict as reasons for the reduction in growth projections.
The report also warned that downside risks are significant. Global growth could further moderate to 2.1 percent if energy supply disruptions persist and oil prices average US$115 a barrel this year, which would push inflation to 4.4 percent.
The report lowered growth forecasts for two-thirds of countries compared to the January report this year, with Gulf countries recording the largest reduction from 3.9 percent in 2025 to almost zero in 2026.
South Asia is expected to record the strongest growth of any region at 6.3 percent in 2026, although that figure is down from seven percent in 2025.
In addition, the report maintained a growth forecast of 2.2 percent for the United States (US) economy in 2026, although it noted that the figure could decline to 2.1 percent in 2027 and two percent in 2028.
The eurozone economy is expected to grow at a rate of 0.8 percent in 2026, down from 1.4 percent in 2025. As for Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it is projected to grow by 0.7 percent in 2026 compared to 1.1 percent in 2025.
The World Bank expects global growth to rebound to 2.8 percent in 2027, but that rate remains 0.4 percentage points below the average recorded in the 2010s.
While risks remain tilted to the downside due to increased hostilities, commodity market disruptions and heightened geopolitical tensions, the bank stressed that policy action is critical.
At the global level, the World Bank urged countries to protect energy and food security and advance the energy transition. At the domestic level, all countries were urged to control inflation, strengthen fiscal sustainability and support job creation.
–BERNAMA-XINHUA