TENANG, JOHOR: Seat N.05 of the Tenang State Assembly is expected to be one of the areas that will attract attention in this year’s Johor State Election (PRN) when it sees a four-cornered contest involving Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and an Independent candidate.
Based on the results of previous elections, Tenang can no longer be considered a seat that has an absolute advantage for any party.
Although BN managed to recapture the seat in the 2022 Johor state election through Haslinda Salleh’s victory with a majority of 1,706 votes, the voting pattern in this area shows an increasingly competitive competition.
Tenang’s political landscape is also influenced by its position in the Sekijang Parliament, which is currently represented by Pakatan Harapan.
This situation shows that some voters are willing to make different choices between the Parliament and State Legislative Assembly levels based on candidates, local issues and current performance.
From a demographic perspective, Tenang has a diverse voter composition with Malay voters as the largest group, alongside the Chinese and Indian communities who also play an important role.
In a contest involving more than two candidates, support from on-the-fence voters as well as non-Malay voters has the potential to influence the final outcome.
Perikatan Nasional has fielded Normala Sudirman, former head of the PAS Muslimat Dewan Labis, as its candidate for the seat. Her nomination reflects PN’s confidence in female leadership and efforts to expand the party’s influence in areas previously controlled by BN.
As a female candidate with experience in party organization, Normala is expected to focus on issues of people’s welfare, cost of living and community development.
However, he also faces the challenge of maintaining and expanding PN’s support in a competition involving four corners.
On the BN side, Mohd Azahar Ibrahim brings the strength of the party machinery that has long been established in the area, especially among rural voters and the FELDA community.
The advantages of the organization and grassroots network are still BN’s main assets in maintaining its influence in Tenang.
Pakatan Harapan, through Amanah candidate Elia Nadira Sabudin, is expected to work to strengthen support in settlement centres and among voters who are inclined towards the reform and governance agenda.
PH’s performance at the Parliamentary level shows that the party still has a support base that it can leverage, even though the voting pattern at the DUN level is not necessarily the same.
Meanwhile, the presence of Independent candidate, Siti Aisyah Zobir, has the potential to add a new dimension to the competition.
Although Independent candidates typically face challenges in terms of machinery and resources, such candidacies can influence vote distribution depending on the level of voter acceptance of the issues brought forward.
Overall, the Tenang state constituency is expected to be a competitive field influenced by several key factors, including the strength of the party machinery, candidate profiles, cost of living issues, local development, the performance of elected representatives and voter turnout rates.
In a four-cornered contest, each party’s ability to retain traditional supporters while attracting the support of voters on the fence is expected to be a key factor determining the election outcome.
Based on observations of previous voting patterns, the Tenang seat can be considered a competitive area.
While BN has a winning record at the state assembly level, PN and PH each have a support base that allows them to compete. Therefore, the final result is likely to depend on the dynamics of the current campaign, the effectiveness of voter mobilization and voter sentiment on polling day.
— MINUTESMY
— SOURCE: PRESSKL
